How popular is betting on the NFL in 2022? Let’s put it this way: before the season, 18% of all U.S. adults planned on placing at least one NFL bet.
Of course, betting on sports is one thing; making money on betting is another. And this isn’t just about winning your bets! Even if you have real talent in picking games to bet on, you may not cut it as a bettor.
Why is that? Simple: it takes more than NFL knowledge to turn betting into a lucrative hobby. You also need to be more disciplined than the betting public, as they’re the ones you’re ultimately betting against.
Want to make the most of your NFL bets? Read on for a list of time-proven tips that will help you reach the next level as a bettor!
Learn the Terminology
If you’re just getting started with betting, your first step should be to learn some key terms. Doing so will also help you follow the rest of this guide!
First, there is your standard point spread. A point spread is a bet on the margin of victory. For instance, if you bet the Bills as a -7.5 favorite over the Jaguars, Buffalo must win by 8 or more points for your bet to pay out.
Another popular type of bet is the money line, where you’re picking the winner. The odds get adjusted for teams’ abilities. In the above example, the Bills might be around -270, so you’d risk $2.70 for every $1 you want to win.
Then you have the total, which is a bet on the number of points scored in the game. With these bets, you’re not trying to guess the exact number. Instead, you’re betting on whether the total will go over or under the set amount.
Finally, there are the props or proposition bets. These bets aren’t tied to the outcome of the game. You’re betting on, say, whether Jamaal Williams scores a TD or if Patrick Mahomes gets 300 passing yards.
Don’t Bet on Everything
Even if you know your terminology, you may still fall for common traps for new bettors. For example, betting on every single game in a week.
There are many reasons why you may want to bet on all games. Maybe you used to be a casual bettor but then started taking betting seriously. As a result, you now have a mountain of NFL knowledge you want to unleash.
With this mindset, it’s easy to believe that every game holds value. You’ll start thinking about the various combinations that could lead to profits. A prop bet here, a two-team teaser there, and we’re looking good!
The truth is, this is the simplest way to lose money on NFL betting. Betting margins are razor-thin, but they offer a reliable way to make money. If you bet on every game, though, that opportunity will quickly disappear.
As you progress as a bettor, you’ll be more likely to recognize your “tells.” Soon enough, you’ll know the difference between tricking yourself into a bet and believing in it.
Don’t Chase Your Bets
Here’s a thought exercise: you use a dart board to pick your next 100 NFL bets. Over this big of a sample size, you’d expect to hit around 50%.
In an efficient market, most point spreads would have a 50/50 chance of panning out. Even with this dartboard method, though, you’d still outperform most bettors. But if anyone can pick 50% over time, how is this possible?
We can attribute some of it to greed, such as in the above example of betting on all games. That said, bettors tend to get in the most trouble when they try to chase bets.
See, most bettors who have a bad day often want to try and make up for it. That’s also why drinking and betting are a dangerous combination. If your decision-making is impaired, you’re more likely to bet over your head.
You may feel like chasing bets even when you’re winning! After a successful Sunday performance, for example, you may double up on the MNF. Until you know what you’re doing, though, you’re best off showing restraint.
Don’t Overreact
Speaking of showing restraint, the NFL won’t make it easy for you. With only 256 games in a season, each week will come with some hot takes.
Want to improve your gambling strategy? Step number one: ignore those hot takes and play your own game. If you see some point spreads that seem too good to be true, think about why the bookies are offering them.
Here’s the thing: the gap between the best and worst teams in the NFL isn’t that big. This isn’t college football, where OSU dominates its opponents. Every team has real talent, which means most blowouts are misleading.
The best way to avoid overreacting is to look at the advanced stats. If a team scores 400 yards in a game, don’t bet the house on them next week. See how many plays they needed to score 400 yards first.
Manage Your Bankroll
Your bankroll plays a key role in any kind of sports gambling. Its purpose is to define the amount of money you want to allocate to betting.
In many ways, managing a bankroll is like going to a casino. A smart gambler will only bring what they don’t mind losing. That way, if they do get unlucky on that day, they’ll have no choice but to stop betting.
That’s the same way you should treat NFL betting. Set aside an amount of money that you’re comfortable flushing down the toilet, then never spend more than that. For best results, only make your bets before the day starts.
A bankroll can also help you ensure that you never spend too much money on a single bet. Ideally, this would be a specific percentage of your bankroll, such as 5%. This doubles as a great way to avoid chasing bets!
Shop for Best Lines
One of the best gambling tips we can give you is to look for every edge you can find. The best way to do that is to have access to several books.
For a lot of people, this will seem like too much effort. After all, why not bet the Jets money line +130 at the book you’re logged into instead of looking for a better deal? The difference is likely to be small, anyway.
There’s some truth in this line of reasoning. Most respected sportsbooks tend to have very similar lines and odds. That’s not a coincidence: they all keep track of the competition and try not to stray from the pack.
Still, shopping around for the best odds is worth it. For starters, even small differences add up, so why give away free money?
Also, sometimes you’ll get lucky and see lines that offer real value. Some books are slower to react to the market. Find out which books to focus on by checking out https://www.bookmakersreview.com/sportsbooks/.
Respect the Market
This tip ties into the previous one. If you see lines that change more than you expected, it’s worth investigating why that happened.
Let’s say you’re keeping an eye out on a game featuring a 5-point underdog. You expect that at some point during the week, they’ll hit +7. And let’s say that does happen, but the line immediately jumps to +10.
At first glance, this seems like good news. Now you can get the underdog you wanted, and at +10 to boot! But the real question is: why did the line change?
One logical conclusion is that there’s been an injury you don’t know about. Alternatively, maybe a group of respected bettors suddenly bet the favorite. Either way, you shouldn’t ignore these signs.
With NFL gambling, monitoring the market as much as possible will solve a lot of dilemmas. If you’re still unsure about certain things, reach out to a more experienced bettor. Having a mentor can be invaluable!
Avoid Parlays
A parlay is a type of wager where you combine two or more bets for a greater payout. For the wager to hit, all your selections must win.
To casual bettors, parlays can seem enticing. A 12-1 parlay, for instance, means you need to hit four games. However, that same wager gives the house an 18.75% edge, whereas a single coin flip only gives them 4.75%.
Look, winning an NFL bet is hard enough without giving away that much edge. If you want to play the lottery, you’re better off buying a lottery ticket. If you want to take betting seriously, stop playing parlays.
Of course, throwing in a parlay for entertainment purposes is another pair of shoes. Exotic bets, particularly those with high payouts, can be a lot of fun! As long as you don’t expect your parlay to win, you’ll be fine.
Avoid Most Teasers
A teaser is very similar to a parlay, to the point that it usually isn’t worth it either. That said, this situation isn’t as clear-cut as the parlay one.
Let’s say you want to play a six-point teaser at the usual -110 odds. To break even, you’d need to have a 72.4% or greater chance of covering. However, these types of spreads only cover 69% of the time.
The story changes when you introduce Wong teasers, which capture both the 3 and the 7. If you focus on +1.5 to +2.5 underdogs and -7.5 to -8.5 favorites, you should cover your bet 75% of the time.
Now, most books took note of this and no longer offer teasers at -110. These days, the best you can get is usually a six-point teaser at -120 odds. These are still worth it, though, as the hurdle rate only jumps to 73.9%.
In general, -120 is the most you should consider with Wong teasers. This is where shopping around for the best lines makes the most sense.
Don’t Buy Unnecessary Points
When you buy points on a point spread, you’re paying money to increase your break-even percentage. In most cases, this won’t be worth it.
For beginner bettors, this may be hard to believe. After all, why not spend 10 cents for an extra half-point? Well, it’s because these points will usually only take you from -9.5 to -9, which changes almost nothing.
Sure, it’s possible to lose a bet on a -9.5 favorite that wins by nine. The thing is, a nine-point margin of victory in the NFL happens less than 2% of the time. In the long run, not buying these points is far more likely to help you.
The math changes when you get to the two key numbers: 3 and 7. These margins are the only ones that occur over 5% of the time. If you can pay 10 cents to get a team within 3 or 7 points, you should do it.
In some cases, you may even want to pay up to 20 cents to buy key points. Here are four situations where that makes sense:
- Taking a 2.5-point underdog to +3
- Taking a 3-point underdog to +3.5
- Taking a 3-point favorite to -2.5
- Taking a 3.5-point favorite to -3
Learn From Your Mistakes
Our final tip for makes sense for all facets of life. When you lose a wager, spend some time to figure out what went wrong.
Think of it this way: every bet you make is also an investment in your betting education. Whether you win or lose, the only way a bet will be a waste is if it doesn’t improve your understanding of the game.
That’s why every experienced bettor will tell you not to be afraid of being wrong. When you’re betting for a long time, being wrong becomes second nature. Even the best bettors only win slightly more than 50% of their bets.
Being willing to learn from your mistakes also makes you more likely to grow as a bettor. Over time, learning more about yourself will help you develop an intuitive knowledge of when to jump in on a bet.
Betting on the NFL Made Easy
As you can see, betting on the NFL isn’t a get-rich-quick scheme. It takes time and effort to become a good bettor, and even more to be a profitable one. That said, following the above tips is a great starting point!
Want to know more about the enticing world of sports betting? Keep checking out our Sports section for even more betting tips!